The value of mobile payments for digital and physical goods, money transfers and NFC transactions will reach US$670bn by 2015, up from $240bn this year, according to a study from Juniper Research.
These forecasts represent the gross merchandise value of all purchases or the value of money being transferred.
The Mobile Payment Strategies report reveals that all segments will exhibit two to three times growth over the next five years. This growth will be driven by the rapid adoption of mobile ticketing, NFC contactless payments, physical goods purchases and money transfers as people in both developed and developing countries use their devices for everyday transactions.
Some 20 countries are expected to launch NFC services in the next 18 months, resulting in transactions approaching $50bn worldwide by 2014. Meanwhile, the need for financial access in developing countries is such that active mobile money users will double by 2013 and drive transaction values accordingly.
“Our analysis shows that emerging segments such as physical goods payments, NFC and money transfers will fuel market growth by a factor of 2.7 times by 2015,” said senior analyst David Snow.
“Digital goods is the largest segment and, although forecast to more than double, it is not growing as quickly as some of the newer segments.”
The top three regions for mobile payments – Far East and China, western Europe, and North America – will represent 75% of the global mobile payment gross transaction value by 2015.
Digital goods payments will account for nearly 40% of the market in 2015.
The study provides the big picture of mobile payments, providing forecasts of the main market segments of digital and physical goods purchases, contactless NFC and domestic and international money transfers and remittances, providing regional forecasts of gross transaction values.
