Want to never be wrong? Become an IoT forecaster

Larry Bellehumeur, M2M / IoT Consultant
NovotechTechnologies

I have been heavily involved in the stock trading market for a long time. I’ve done well for myself, usually beating the market handily most years. I’ve even been lucky enough to be featured in a number of periodicals…

One of my favourite parts about the stock market is watching the analysts on Bloomberg and other financial channels. They say a lot, but if you listen closely, they rarely say anything concrete.

If they do, there are so many caveats that you could drive a truck through it. I mean, almost none of them have predicted any of the major market movements of the past two decades….nope, most of them missed the Tech bubble and just about all of them missed the US Housing Crash and the Great Recession. However…somehow, they are all still employed, says Larry Bellehumeur, M2M / IoT Consultant, Novotech Technologies.

I am starting to feel the same way about IoT prognosticators. Every year, we see dozens of graphs, charts and predictions as to how things are going to grow, but the vast majority of the time, they are either wrong or their projections were so vague that I think they can also be used to predict when it will rain.

G,LMSLThis graph is from our friends at Forrester. It talks very generally about some categories that can be expanded/contracted in whatever way you like to include whatever relevant information is needed to make them seem accurate.

Take the Gateway Hardware category as an example. This graph shows that it will take 3-5 years for Gateway Hardware to move into the next phase, which is Equilibrium. It doesn’t mention anything about expected amounts of growth, what will trigger such growth or even what is fully defined as a Gateway Hardware. Does it include standard routers that may have additional wireless? Does it include dumb terminals used in bridge mode only? Does this include home-based routers that may have a USB stick for back-up, but pretty much no one actually does use it?

The Bottom Line

The great thing about graphs like this is that you can always be right and are rarely wrong. I just fail to see the value on these things. Perhaps I am too much of a “meat and potatoes” guy? Or perhaps I just focus on the facts that make sense, facts that help me do better than most investors. Either way, maybe we would all be better off if we ignore vague graphs and focus on growing our industry in actual numbers.

The author of this blog is Larry Bellehumeur, M2M / IoT Consultant, Novotech Technologies

About the Author :

As an M2M / IoT Consultant with over 10 years of experience in the wireless industry – Larry Bellehumeur is often the fire behind Novotech’s continually expanding portfolio of innovative M2M solutions. On top of exploring new lines of business and lucrative vertical markets for Novotech, Larry is a recognized expert and influential blogger in the M2M, IoT and Wireless Data Solutions space.

Comment on this article below or via Twitter: @IoTNow_ OR @jcIoTnow

FEATURED IoT STORIES

9 IoT applications that will change everything

Posted on: September 1, 2021

Whether you are a future-minded CEO, tech-driven CEO or IT leader, you’ve come across the term IoT before. It’s often used alongside superlatives regarding how it will revolutionize the way you work, play, and live. But is it just another buzzword, or is it the as-promised technological holy grail? The truth is that Internet of

Read more

Which IoT Platform 2021? IoT Now Enterprise Buyers’ Guide

Posted on: August 30, 2021

There are several different parts in a complete IoT solution, all of which must work together to get the result needed, write IoT Now Enterprise Buyers’ Guide – Which IoT Platform 2021? authors Robin Duke-Woolley, the CEO and Bill Ingle, a senior analyst, at Beecham Research. Figure 1 shows these parts and, although not all

Read more

CAT-M1 vs NB-IoT – examining the real differences

Posted on: June 21, 2021

As industry players look to provide the next generation of IoT connectivity, two different standards have emerged under release 13 of 3GPP – CAT-M1 and NB-IoT.

Read more

IoT and home automation: What does the future hold?

Posted on: June 10, 2020

Once a dream, iot home automation is slowly but steadily becoming a part of daily lives around the world. In fact, it is believed that the global market for smart home automation will reach $40 billion by 2020.

Read more
RECENT ARTICLES

Nozomi Networks and Tripwire announce strategic partnership

Posted on: September 17, 2021

Nozomi Networks Inc., the provider of OT and IoT security, and Tripwire, a global provider of security and compliance solutions for enterprises and industrial organisations, announced they have partnered to help organisations lower cyber risk with consistent security controls that span their IT, OT and IoT environments.

Read more

RightIndem deploys enterprise-grade conversational AI to simplify customer claims process

Posted on: September 17, 2021

RightIndem, an global insurance technology company, has worked with Bristol-based Amdaris to simplify its customer onboarding process via developing enterprise-grade conversational Artificial Intelligence experiences.

Read more