New findings from Juniper Research reveal that the annual sales of fully autonomous vehicles (AVs) in the US will reach 5 million by 2026. In comparison, the global market will account for 20 million new AVs sold during the same year.
The new research, Autonomous Vehicles & ADAS: Readiness Index, Player Positioning & Forecasts 2018-2026, found that the market adoption of AV technologies is set to ramp up in the future, driven by:
- Competition from the likes of Google, whose focus has been on entirely driverless vehicles.
- Heavy investments from Volvo, Audi, Daimler and GM; positioning themselves as mobility services firms.
- Governments enabling firms to test AVs on their roads and invest in smart city infrastructure.
- Drivers becoming accustomed to ADAS (Advanced Driver Assistance Systems).
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Google & Volvo lead OEM progress
Juniper ranked the 5 most promising players in the driverless car sector:
- Waymo (Google)
Ranked no 1, Google is further ahead than traditional manufacturers in terms of technology and miles tested.
Waymo is set to be integrated into smart city strategies for public transportation and could licence its expertise to other OEMs; threatening the role of the Tier 1 suppliers. [Players were scored on factors including development time, public trials, miles tested, fleet size, and consumer awareness].
ADAS adoption reach 100 million vehicles by 2020
Juniper estimates that 45 million on-road vehicles will have some form of ADAS functionality by the end of 2018, with adoption reaching 100 million by 2020. Additionally, with luxury vehicles incorporating semi-autonomous technologies, such as the new Audi A8, the market will further evolve to full automation, while shifting its focus to delivering a complete driver experience.
Research author Michael Larner explained: “The introduction of fully autonomous technologies, with some vehicles no longer having steering wheels and pedals, will mean that the focus will shift from how drivers get from A-B to how the occupants use the journey time.”
Juniper Research provides research and analytical services to the global hi-tech communications sector; providing consultancy, analyst reports and industry commentary.