The global cellular IoT connections climbed 24% YoY in 2023 to reach 3.3 billion, despite challenges in the cellular IoT module sector, according to Counterpoint’s latest IoT Connections Tracker. Looking ahead, the market is set to maintain its strong expansion, with connections projected to exceed 6.2 billion by 2030, growing at a CAGR of 10%. Global cellular IoT connectivity revenues also saw a 17% YoY increase, reaching US$13.7 billion, even as ARPUs continued to decline. Counterpoint expects global cellular IoT revenues to surpass US$26 billion by 2030, as ARPUs are expected to stabilise in the latter part of the decade.
With over 2.3 billion connections, China continues to dominate the global cellular IoT market with a near 70% global share in 2023, up 26% YoY. The number of cellular IoT connections in China has already surpassed the number of mobile phone subscribers, as Mobile Network Operators aggressively expand their IoT deployments. Despite China’s overwhelming share of connections, its contribution to global IoT connectivity is 36%.
Commenting on this dynamic, Mohit Agrawal, the research director at Counterpoint, said, “China continues to roll out low-cost IoT plans for rapid deployment. A sizeable portion of connections in China operate on 2G and NB-IoT networks, with ARPUs lower than $2.2 per year. Looking ahead, we expect ARPUs to stabilize, particularly with the advent of 5G and growth of 4G Cat-1 bis solutions as China will continue to expand its connections into the automotive, smart meters and smart retail sectors.”
Connected Cars, Smart Meters and Smart Retail will continue to dominate the cellular IoT landscape and collectively account for more than 60% of the cellular IoT market by the end of 2030. Connected Cars will enhance vehicle automation and safety, while Smart Meters will optimise energy usage and utility management. Smart Retail will improve customer experiences with data-driven insights and more security. These sectors will drive the growth of IoT, transforming industries with real-time connectivity and efficiency.
Operators worldwide have been steadily expanding their cellular IoT presence. Commenting on the market outlook, Siddhant Cally, the research analyst at Counterpoint, said, “We are witnessing a significant increase in cellular IoT use cases such as utilities and connected vehicles. Many emerging nations are implementing digital transformation plans that prioritise the deployment of public service solutions. The advent of 5G will play a crucial role in driving connectivity-based revenues, as operators capitalise on the vast potential of massive Machine-type Communications (mMTC) offered by 5G, particularly as 2G and 3G technologies are phased out.”
By 2030, Counterpoint expects 5G to account for nearly 50% of Global Cellular IoT revenues as it will cater to high-demand applications like autonomous vehicles, industrial automation, and immersive smart cities.
The Cellular IoT market is highly consolidated. This trend is expected to continue for a while. However, operators from emerging regions are gaining momentum. As digitisation and network expansion accelerate, these regions are set to grow their IoT subscriber bases, driven by rising demand for IoT solutions.
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